Nuking Labour's progressive energy policy

On Thursday last week the Labour Party released its most detailed energy policy strategy to date (https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ThirtyBy2030report.pdf) under the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn, who has shown increasing interest in  the climate change threat. For example, in responding to the Prime Minister in the Queen’s Speech debate on 14 October he stressed “what we need is a green new deal. We need a green industrial revolution, and we have to face up to the reality of the climate emergency. If we do not, the damage to the next generation and the one after it will be even worse.” (https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2019-10-14/debates/C02C488A-E8CB-459F-A491-78BA5A98A9CB/DebateOnTheAddress)

The new energy document  follows a shorter document, issued  a year earlier, drafted by the same authorship team, titled ‘Achieving 60% renewable and low carbon energy in the UK by 2030’ (https://www.labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Achieving-6025-by-2030-final-version.pdf)

Described as an “expert briefing note for Labour on wind, solar and energy efficiency”, it was covered by an authorship rider that insisted that it was “conducted independently from the Labour Party and does not represent Labour Party policy,” and added “ This project is the product of a working group of industry professionals and experts, with inputs from right across the energy sector, over a six-month period.. The authors have contributed in a purely personal capacity.

The summary of this document stated;

“In the 2017 General Election, the Labour Party committed to ensuring that 60% of the UK’s energy demand in electricity and heating came from zero carbon or renewable sources by 2030. The commitment prompted a group of industry specialists and professionals to begin a research project addressing the following questions: Can it be done? How? And with what consequences for our climate and economy?  This briefing sets out some of the high-level findings of that research, covering the technologies needed to achieve that target, and the top line implications for jobs and energy poverty. It focuses on four key areas: energy efficiency, offshore wind, onshore wind and solar power. The full findings, which set out decarbonisation pathways across the energy system, will be published in a full report later in the year.

This work is the first stage of the project, and analyses ‘the what’: the scale and scope of technologies required for Labour to meet the 60% target. The second stage will analyse ‘the how’: the skills, investment and government action needed to ensure the energy transition is delivered at best value, while maximising economic opportunities across the UK – protecting existing and creating new energy workers.

The purpose of this research is to help inform Labour Party policy, and contribute to the wider debate on the UK’s future energy mix”

 

In the September 2018 document Foreword, Rebecca Long-Bailey, Labour’s Shadow Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy wrote:

 

“Tackling climate change will be one of Labour’s most important tasks in government. The evidence is unequivocal, the timeframes are urgent, and the opportunities are unmissable.

That is why we are backing a target of net zero emissions before 2050, and are committed to ensuring that 60 per cent of the UK’s energy comes from renewable and low carbon sources within twelve years of coming to power.

As set out in Labour’s Green Transformation pamphlet, we will take on environmental challenges according to three principles:

1. Our ambition is based on science

 

2. Our interventions are transformational, bringing about the structural change needed to address drivers of environmental degradation

 

3. Our interventions will advance our Labour values – justice, equality, solidarity, and democracy – both at home and abroad

 

This means addressing climate change in a way that ensures that the huge benefits of transitioning to a sustainable economy – and the benefits are huge – are both realized and widely shared. We know we can only do this by working closely with trade unions representing energy workers, and that’s what we are already doing.

I warmly welcome this independent research undertaken for the Labour Party, and pay tribute to the working group of industry professionals and experts behind it.

Labour’s mission is about more than carbon. It is about creating hundreds of thousands of new jobs reviving whole areas of the UK, and ending fuel poverty, boosting the fundamental quality of life for millions of people. Forget climate pessimism. We are excited, inspired, and itching to get started.

With that in mind, I look forward to welcoming the full research later in the year.”

 

The new energy policy strategy - Thirty recommendations by 2030 - is the outcome of the expansion of this earlier document, and runs to 187 pages. The full contents list is reproduced below.* Rebecca Long-Bailey, says of the necessity for the ideas in the report:

“we have a moral duty to switch to clean energy. We are the first generation with the data and science to properly understand the full implications of the damage that two centuries of industrialisation has done to the fragile eco-system that makes all life possible on Earth. And we are probably the last generation that is able to prevent run-away climate change from threatening the very existence of human civilisation. If we don’t cut pollution, nothing else that a Labour government delivers will survive as a legacy.”

The main difference , aside from length, from the earlier document is the inclusion of advocacy support for a nuclear energy component to the electricity  supply mix, of which more below.

The new report lists its authors, but not their professional experience or affiliations. Below is a summary I have researched and compiled, and collectively they do appear very well qualified to write this report, most  having  high level academic qualifications, and some  long experience as energy expert practitioners.

Primary Author:

Tom Bailey: low carbon energy consultant (at Arup)

 

Contributing Authors:

 

Alexander Schamroth-Green: no independent publications or institutional details

Archie Luxton: renewable energy specialist engineer  ( at Arup)

Christina Lumsden: experienced energy and climate change consultant (at Arup). Researcher for report ‘Deadline 2020: how cities will get the job done (C40 Cities/Arup)

Donal Brown:  sustainable energy specialist with extensive experience in the low carbon housing sector, Centre on Innovation and Energy Demand, Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU), University of Sussex

Ewan Frost-Pennington: Energy and Climate Change Consultant (at Arup) now based in San Francisco

Jaspreet Singh: MPhil in Engineering for Sustainable Development on ‘Decentralised Solar Power in Communities and businesses in South Asia’ at University of Cambridge; (now mechanical and electrical engineer at Arup)

Sara Dethier: studied Physics at Imperial College London with a year abroad at the University of Valencia, where she completed her thesis on active machine learning for the Earth Explorer Fluorescence Explorer mission, which seeks to improve our understanding of the global carbon and water cycle

William Bailey:  William Bailey Ltd, part of the Renewable Energy Hub, based in Belper in the Midlands. WBL are suppliers of heating, plumbing, ventilation and air conditioning services.

Economics Analysis:

John Barrett: Professor in Energy and Climate Policy in the Sustainability Research Institute at the University of Leeds. His research interests include energy demand, resource productivity, energy and economy modelling, carbon accounting and exploring the transition to a low carbon future. John was the Director of the Centre for Industrial Energy, Materials and Products (CIE-MAP) and a Co-Director of the UK Energy Research Centre. He was also a lead author for the International Panel on Climate Change, Working Group III.

Paul Brockway: Dr Brockway is a University Academic Fellow in the School of Earth and Environment at the University of Leeds focussed on studying macroeconomic energy-economy interactions, through primarily the lens of exergy analysis

Jaime Nieto Vega: research fellow at the School of Earth and Environment at the University of Leeds and a member of the GEEDS-UVa (Research Group on Energy, Economy and System Dynamics - University of Valladolid)

 

Lead author Tom Bailey was one of 32 contributing authors to a significant study, “Delivering London’s Energy Future: the Mayor’s Climate Change Mitigation and Energy Strategy,” published in October 2011 (www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/gla_migrate_files_destination/Energy-future-oct11.pdf)

In an interview published a few years later, (“I’d like that job: Tom Bailey, low carbon energy consultant, Arup”, 12 March 2013; https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2013/03/id-like-that-job-tom-bailey-low-carbon-energy-consultant-arup/) he said “I was surprised how the main hurdles when trying to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are not actually technical. A surprising amount of my job is doing financial and business modelling, trying to demonstrate to others that green solutions stack up commercially. Normally the technical bits are easy. It’s getting the people and the money in line that can be more challenging..”

In a later article, (“Tom Bailey on Keeping the Lights On,” (www.getsolutions.co.uk/tom-bailey-keeping-lights/), published on 20 October 2014), Bailey wrote:

“For the past two years the UK has experienced unusually warm winters, which has led to less energy usage…Whilst the energy industry has been able to secure and use the renewable energy efficiently, we cannot survive on the hope of having another mild winter. Not when you consider that this winter is meant to be the coldest in a century, with arctic freeze gripping the UK…For UK energy markets to curb their reliance on imported energy, there has to be efficient energy management processes in place. ..We can also create a ‘green fund’ to help people reduce their energy consumption, and exploit the opportunities from solar, CHP and a variety of different technologies, leading to a reduction in energy consumption and associated costs.”

The one area the new report authors would appear to have no professional expert knowledge is nuclear  power. The intriguing question is why is  the short chapter on nuclear has found its way into this report, in which it sits very uncomfortably  And why does it uniquely  contain  some gross errors, including  several sloppy spelling mistakes (its spells Hinkley Point C also wrongly as Hinckley, sometimes in the same sentence!) and one wrong placement of a nuclear  reactor site, Bradwell, from Essex to Kent? (One critic suggested this might have been an early unexpected consequence of sea level rise from climate change!)

Minimally, the report lacks consistent editing. But by including support for nuclear power, which is not  low carbon, is highly centralized and  still surrounded by secrecy- as it has for decades - means it fails Labour’s decarbonisation, decentralisation and democratisation commitments.

Labour’s forthcoming new election manifesto will be interesting on energy policy.

ANNEX

4.13 Nuclear power
For the purposes of this analysis, we have considered nuclear power as a contributing towards renewable and low - carbon energy supply.

4.13.1 Nuclear power and GHG emissions

The production of electricity by harnessing nuclear fission was pioneered by the UK and a small number of other nations almost 70 years ago. It is now one of the main electricity generation technologies deployed globally.  The  fission  of  uranium  atoms  produces  large  volumes  of  heat  without  any  direct  reliance  on combustion  of  carbon-based  fuels,  and  so  creates  low  operational  GHG  emissions.  However, as  with  all large  scale  civils  work  and  plant  manufacture  and  installation,  there  are  significant  imbedded  GHG emissions  associated  with  them.  This  is  true  for  most  energy  generation  technologies.  It  is  also  true  for nuclear,  in  the  case  of the  construction  of  the  plant,  uranium  mining,  milling,  fuel  processing,  fuel enrichment,
refuelling(plants  are  offline  for  months  at  a  time),  backup  power,  waste  storage,  and decommissioning have significant imbedded GHG emissions associated with them. For this reason, nuclear power is considered a low -carbon energy source, but not a zero -carbon energy source.

4.13.2 Current UK nuclear capacity

The  UK  has  15  reactors  with  a  total  capacity  of  8.9GW  generating  about  21%  of  total  electrical  output.
However  almost  half  of  this  capacity  is planned to  be  retired  by  2025.  The  capacity  factor  of  a  typical nuclear power station is far greater than all other renewable and low-carbon sources, because a station provides output 24/7 when online–a core reason behind arguments that nuclear power should be a key
part of any low-carbon energy mix. As outlined in Table17,five of the current nuclear power sites in the https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/fifth-carbon-budget-dataset/UK, representing 10 reactors, are expected to reach the end of their operational life before 2030, and most of these by 2025. EDF has a programme of work aiming to extend the life of these plants, but details for this  are  not  currently  publicly  available.
Therefore,  this  work  has  assumed  that  the  plants  will  come offline at the planned time, meaning around 5GW of the current fleet will potentially be offline by 2030, and all but Sizewell B from 2031.

Table 17 . Current UK nuclear fleet (as of 2018). NOT INCLUDED IN THIS EMAIL

4.13.3 Options for maintaining capacity to 2030

There  are  certainly  sufficient  proposed  nuclear  power  sites  within  the  UK  to  replace  decommissioned plants between now and 2030.
The UK government currently aims to deliver 12GW of new nuclear capacity by  2030,  and  has  proposed  a  further  2.3GW,  from  a  range  of  new  sites
(Hinkley  C1/C2,  Sizewell  C1/C2, Wylfa Newydd ½, Oldbury B1/B2, Moreside ½/3 etc). Of these only Hinckley C is under construction. The nuclear power capacity contributing to supply in 2030 is therefore 8.9GW, resulting in around 63TWh of output in 2030, contributing 15% of the renewable and low-carbon electricity needed. Given the large number of nuclear plants being decommissioned over the coming 7 years, it may be possible that in the
mid 2020s the nuclear capacity drops below that of today, but this strategy assumes that this number then increases back to 8.9GW by 2030.
However, at the time of writing there remains uncertainty around much of the planned and proposed new capacity in the UK. For instance, Toshiba has recently pulled out of the planned Mooreside plant in Cumbria for financial reasons. That plant was intended to account for 3.4GW of nuclear power, and was originally
planned for 2024. Hitachi have also recently pulled out of the planned Wylfa nuclear plant in Angelsey, also for financial reasons. The assumption for this strategy, as per Labour Party policy, is to maintain nuclear generation capacity in the UK at its current level out to 2030, and so we assume these new reactors will be developed only to the extent required to replace the 8GW of existing plant capacity that is expected to come offline.
This could still certainly be achieved, however. Hinkley Point C is under construction and due for completion in 2025. Nearing the completion date there would be much more certainty around the cost of construction, http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/C-EDF-Energy-extends-lives-of-UK-AGR-plants-1602164.html   http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-t-z/united-kingdom.aspx  http://www.toshiba.co.jp/about/ir/en/news/20181108_4.pdf
 and the design for the EDF EPR would now be familiar to UK regulators.

This lengthy process involves two stages:
•Stage 1–GDA (General Design Assessment), checking basic principles of operation of a new plant design
•Stage 2–Site specific safety case, requiring many thousands of hours of staff time, demonstrating  that the plant is safe in the context of a specific site.
This  process  would  be  much  quicker  post  Hinckley  Point  C,  significantly  speeding  up  the  process. Costs would look lower, potentially around the 65 GBP/MWh mark. Also the government is currently considering different  funding  model  proposed  next  time  for  the  following  rounds.  This  all  points  to  an  easier  and quicker development and implementation of new plant sites. There  are  also  multiple  viable  sites  for  doing  so. The  Sizewell  C  site  could  house  very  similar  plant  to Hinckley Point C, at 3.2GW, meaning total of 6.4GW, meaning only 3GW needs to be found. Again there are multiple sites where a third 3.2GW plant could be housed. Sizewell on the east coast could be anther option, or Bradwell in Kent. These are all in the south east, so from the point of view of supporting local industry, other sites in the north could be considered, such as Wylfa. This analysis serves to give confidence that with the right government support, nuclear capacity in 2030 could be returned to today’s output levels.

4.13.4 The Impact of not developing any further nuclear plants.

This  document  takes  a  neutral  position  on  the  technology,  assuming  capacity  remains  level.  Without substantial changes to the landscape, for instance through a change in government approach to financing, the collapse of such schemes highlights the risks of the UK maintaining current capacity out to 2030.
As of 2019, Hinckley Point C is the only new plant funded and confirmed as going ahead. If no further plant is  commissioned,  then  by  2030  the  UK  would  only  have  4.4GW  of  operational  nuclear  capacity  (1.2GW from  the existing  Sizewell B  and 3.2GW  from  the  new Hinckley C). This would mean a further 32TWh  of power would need to be found from other renewable and low-carbon sources to plug the gap and meet 90% renewable and low-carbon electricity.

These levels are well within the available resources around the UK, and it is still entirely possible to meet the 90%  target  without  any  new  nuclear  capacity.  It  will  however  be  more  challenging for  a  number  of reasons, including the loss of large volumes of low-carbon baseload power that nuclear provides and the
increasing the proportion of generation capacity that is intermittent. This will necessitate greater capacity for grid balancing, either through power storage, interconnection, demand-side management, or fossil fuel back up. It may for instance necessitate greater volumes of fossil fuel to be put back on stand-by, resulting in  higher  system  balancing  costs.  However,the  system  will  also  benefit  from  cheaper  generation technology such as wind and solar. These issues will be explored in more detail in Section 5.

4.13.5 Technological developments in nuclear power.

A nuclear power technology receiving a lot of attention currently is the small modular reactor (SMR). There are significant potential benefits reported for this technology. It is suitable for modular mass construction (reducing price and complexity and improving reliability and standardisation of processes) and it can  be  produced  largely  by  UK  supply  chains  (Rolls  Royce,  for  example).  However  there  are  no  operational commercial  SMRs–just  military  ones- and  so  it  is  not  considered  likely  that  the  technology  would  be cleared for civil operation before the 2030 target year. It has therefore not been considered any
further. 

This report assumes nuclear output will be maintained at current levels based on Labour’s policy that nuclear will continue to form part of the energy mix. This assumes the existing plants that are planned for decommissioning before 2030 are replaced with equivalent capacity, which this report finds could be
possible in the time frame.

 

*EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................... 6

SNAPSHOT ................................................................................................................................................. 7

The study team and its objectives ............................................................................................................. 8

Four goals for putting the UK on the path to zero-carbon energy ............................................................ 8

Three delivery phases.............................................................................................................................. 10

Summary of Recommendations .............................................................................................................. 12

Delivering the recommendations ............................................................................................................ 16

Emissions targets and climate change .................................................................................................... 18

The economic, employment and health benefits ................................................................................... 19

Towards zero-carbon energy and a zero-carbon UK ............................................................................... 20

A vital and pioneering first step .............................................................................................................. 20

1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 22

An energy transition that will benefit everyone ........................................................................ 23

Project aims and goal ................................................................................................................ 23

Project team .............................................................................................................................. 24

Approach ................................................................................................................................... 25

Ten years to deliver UK wide renewable and low-carbon energy ............................................. 28

2 GOAL 1: REDUCING ENERGY WASTE IN BUILDINGS AND INDUSTRY .................................................. 30

Chapter Summary ...................................................................................................................... 31

Background: energy use in buildings today ............................................................................... 33

The importance of demand reduction....................................................................................... 35

Home energy efficiency and energy-demand reduction ........................................................... 36

Reducing energy waste in the commercial and industrial sectors ............................................ 43

New buildings ............................................................................................................................ 49

Summary of Recommendations ................................................................................................ 50

3 GOAL 2: RADICALLY DECARBONISE HEATING ..................................................................................... 51

Chapter Summary ...................................................................................................................... 52

Background: the UK’s current heat supply ................................................................................ 55

The importance of transitioning from dependence on natural gas heating ............................. 56

Heating technology options: opportunities and challenges ...................................................... 57

Coordination of heat decarbonisation and energy demand reduction ..................................... 63

Maximising renewable or low-carbon heat by 2030 ................................................................. 63

Strategic solutions for decarbonising heat ................................................................................ 71

Summary of Recommendations ................................................................................................ 73

4 GOAL 3: BOOST RENEWABLE AND LOW-CARBON ELECTRICITY GENERATION ................................... 75

Chapter Summary ...................................................................................................................... 76

Background: Renewable energy generation today ................................................................... 78

Approach for renewable and low-carbon electricity analysis ................................................... 78

Summary of renewable and low-carbon electricity mix in 2030 ............................................... 79

Fossil fuel power generation ..................................................................................................... 81

Onshore wind ............................................................................................................................ 81

Offshore Wind ........................................................................................................................... 86

Solar photovoltaics .................................................................................................................... 94

Marine power ............................................................................................................................ 99

Carbon capture and storage .................................................................................................... 104

Hydropower ............................................................................................................................. 108

Biomass power ........................................................................................................................ 108

Nuclear power ......................................................................................................................... 109

Deep geothermal ..................................................................................................................... 112

Decentralised electricity and community electricity generation ............................................ 112

Summary of Recommendations .............................................................................................. 113

5 GOAL 4: SYSTEM BALANCING ........................................................................................................... 114 Expert Briefing: Putting the UK on a path to zero carbon energy 3

 

Chapter Summary .................................................................................................................... 115

Background .............................................................................................................................. 117

The importance of a “whole energy system approach” .......................................................... 121

Demonstrating that the lights and heaters will stay on in 2030 ............................................. 122

Further solutions for balancing supply and demand ............................................................... 126

Ensuring long-term energy security and the Beast from the East ........................................... 129

Impact of storage on overall demand: losses .......................................................................... 131

Summary of recommendations ............................................................................................... 132

6 ELECTRIFICAITON OF TRANSPORT .................................................................................................... 133

Chapter Summary .................................................................................................................... 134

Background .............................................................................................................................. 135

Electric vehicle targets ............................................................................................................. 135

Transport and energy sectors are intimately linked ................................................................ 135

Energy impacts of future changes in UK ground transportation ............................................. 135

Anticipated electricity demand from electric vehicles in 2030 ............................................... 139

Impact of including EV energy demand ................................................................................... 139

Summary of recommendations ............................................................................................... 141

7 CLIMATE CHANGE TARGETS ............................................................................................................. 142

Chapter Summary .................................................................................................................... 143

Energy emissions in the UK...................................................................................................... 144

Estimating the energy-related GHG impact of delivering the thirty recommendations ......... 144

Comparing to climate science and targets .............................................................................. 146

8 IMPACTS ON THE ECONOMY, EMPLOYMENT AND HEALTH ............................................................. 150

Chapter Summary .................................................................................................................... 151

Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 153

Avoiding the costs of doing nothing on climate change .......................................................... 154

Investment ............................................................................................................................... 155

Macro-economic impacts ........................................................................................................ 155

Fuel poverty ............................................................................................................................. 158

Employment impacts ............................................................................................................... 158

Health impacts ......................................................................................................................... 160

9 FOUNDATIONS FOR A ZERO CARBON 2050 ..................................................................................... 163

The right level of ambition for 2030 ........................................................................................ 164

Progressing to net-zero carbon energy ................................................................................... 164

Important issues ...................................................................................................................... 165

Beyond energy to a zero-carbon UK ........................................................................................ 168

10 CONCLUSIONS AND NEXT STEPS....................................................................................................... 170

Conclusions .............................................................................................................................. 171

Next steps ................................................................................................................................ 174

Appendices ................................................................................................................................................ 175

Appendix A – Role of District Heating ........................................................................................................ 176

Appendix B – Role of Biomass In Delivering .............................................................................................. 178

Appendix C – Role of Hydrogen ................................................................................................................. 180

Appendix D –Modelling Assumptions ........................................................................................................ 182

Non-Domestic Building Energy Demand Reduction Assumptions ........................................................ 182

Current sector energy demand assumptions ........................................................................................ 185

Energy Generation Modelling Assumptions .......................................................................................... 186

Carbon Modelling Assumption .............................................................................................................. 186

 

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Thursday 24 October 2019 / 11:05 AM Energy / Environment / Rebecca Long Bailey

Labour welcomes report putting UK onto the path to net zero energy emissions in the 2030s

Today (Thursday), Labour welcomes an expert fast-track plan to clean up the UK’s energy system.

https://labour.org.uk/press/labour-welcomes-report-putting-uk-onto-the-path-to-net-zero-energy-emissions-in-the-2030s/

At Labour Party Conference 2019, motions were adopted calling on the Party to “work towards a path to net zero carbon emissions by 2030” and “work towards a path of net zero carbon emissions within keeping of the IPCC advice including to keep global average temperature rises below 1.5C”.

In line with this, Labour tasked a group of independent energy industry experts with identifying the most radical feasible pathway to decarbonise the energy system by 2030.

Electricity and heating across the UK makes up 56% of the UK’s carbon emissions. Their report, 30 by 2030, identifies four goals to transform the UK’s energy supply and use: reducing energy waste in buildings and industry; decarbonising heat; boosting renewable and low carbon electricity generation and balancing the UK’s supply and demand.

Thirty recommendations to meet these goals include upgrading every home in the UK with energy saving measures like insulation and double glazing, focusing first on damp homes and areas with fuel poverty; installing 8 million heat pumps; installing 7,000 off-shore wind turbines, 2,000 more on-shore wind turbines and solar panels covering an area 22,000 football pitches, tripling the UK’s current capacity.

By 2030 the recommended investment in the energy sector would lead to a net benefit of £800 billion to the economy – the equivalent to the whole economy of Holland or Turkey – and create 850,000 new skilled jobs in green industry.

Upgrading housing stock has the potential to end to the fuel poverty currently affecting 2.5 million households. By 2030 these measures could mean 565,000 less cases of asthma due to reduced damp.

Replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy could result in 6,200 avoided respiratory related deaths a year by 2030 due to improved air quality. Overall, benefits to public health have the potential to save the NHS £400 million per year.

Commenting on the report, Rebecca Long Bailey MP, Labour’s Shadow Business and Energy Secretary, said: 

“This report makes a major contribution to Labour’s plans to kickstart a Green Industrial Revolution.

“The Labour Party has among the most ambitious climate targets in the world and is the only party turning their targets into detailed, credible plans to tackle the climate and environmental crisis.

“Inaction on climate by Conservative and Lib-Dem Coalition Governments has led to a lost decade in the race to cut emissions from our energy system. The recommendations in this report could put the UK on track for a zero-carbon energy system during the 2030’s – but only if rapid progress is made early on. The next five years are therefore crucial.

“We are working with trade unions to ensure that the changes to our energy system will be planned democratically, with the interests of workers and local communities at the heart of the transition.”

Ends

Notes to Editors

·         Full report here: labour.org.uk/30-by-2030

·         Jeremy Corbyn has previously committed that “the next Labour Government will guarantee that all energy workers are offered retraining, a new job on equivalent terms and conditions, covered by collective agreements and fully supported in their housing and income needs through transition.” https://labour.org.uk/press/jeremy-corbyn-speech-alternative-models-ownership-conference/

·         At Labour Party Conference 2019, motions were adopted calling on the Party to:

·         “In collaboration with the trade unions and the scientific community, work towards a path to net zero carbon emissions by 2030, guaranteeing an increase in good unionised jobs in the UK, and the cost of which would be borne by the wealthiest not the majority; and implementing this target into law if it achieves a just-transition for workers.”

·         ‘Have a comprehensive plan that leads the world’ and “work towards a path of net zero carbon emissions within keeping of the IPCC advice including to keep global average temperature rises below 1.5C” and “oversee a just transition, increasing the number of well-paid, unionised green jobs in the UK through public ownership of energy, creating an integrated, democratic system large-scale investment in renewables”.http://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/CAC-3-FINAL..pdf

·         Labour has committed to an industrial strategy ensures the UK reduces its emissions in a way that protects and creates quality unionised jobs with good pay and conditions, retrains workers to access new jobs, allows citizens and workers to engage in decision-making processes, and fairly distributes the costs. https://labour.org.uk/green-industrial-revolution-consultation/

·         Inaction on climate by Conservative and Lib-Dem Coalition Governments has led to a lost decade in the race to cut emissions from our energy system.

·         The Government has effectively banned the cheapest form of renewables – new onshore wind – through restrictive planning measures and removal of subsidies, and new deployment has fallen 94%.https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/solar-wind-energy-renewable-energy-resources-drop-conservative-party-707953

·         The Solar Trade Association report that new deployment of solar has fallen 90% since 2016.https://www.solar-trade.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/STA-Response-Outlook-for-future-investment-in-energy-infrastructure-in-the-UK-03.04.2019.pdf

·         The Government has refused to support the development of the Swansea Tidal Lagoon, holding back the development of larger tidal lagoons across the UK, effectively removed support for tidal stream energy. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jun/25/government-rejects-plan-for-tidal-lagoon-in-swansea

·         The Government’s Sector Deal for offshore wind has been slammed by Greenpeace as “woefully inadequate”.https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/07/government-throws-its-weight-behind-offshore-wind-power-expansion

·         Meanwhile, the Government has overridden local democracy to push fracking on the UK, in the face of overwhelming local opposition to air pollution, earthquakes and risks to local water quality.https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/28/fracking-turning-country-tories-zac-goldsmith-conservative-drilling

·         The analysis has relied to the use of a MARCO-UK model to estimate the behaviour of the UK economy from 2020-2030, under the conditions created through the implementation of the thirty recommendations outlined in this report.

·         The main technical project team, provided to the Leeds economics team, the following inputs for the model: the overall investment volume and timing by technology / intervention (summarised in Section 8.4 above; the estimated government capital investment required by technology / intervention – this is taken to be around £150bn of capital investment over the ten years from 2020-2030; energy savings in electricity and gas – as outlined in the technical chapters above.

·         Between 2020 and 2030 the impacts of delivering the recommendations, compared to no such action, are highly positive, and represents a very substantial uplift to the GDP of the UK over that period. This is due to large volumes of capital investment, both government and private, and improved energy efficiency which saves costs to the economy as a whole. Economic growth will be significantly higher as a result, with the annual growth rate being up to 11.4% higher across the decade than the reference case. This will mean the UK economy will perform significantly better, and cumulatively over the period between 2020-2030, create an extra £800 billion. This is around about the annual output of the whole of Turkey or Holland, or nearly 30% of the entire UK economy today.

·         Given government tax across GDP is historically in the UK around 37%, this has been assumed to remain level to 2030, resulting in up to £290bn greater government income cumulatively by 2030. This would mean that for every £1 the UK government spends, up to £2 would be received as a direct result in tax, effectively paying back the government’s investment twice over. This would have a very substantial net positive impact on the UK government balance sheet.

·         A significant increase in both salaries and disposable income would come out of delivering the recommendations. The hourly wages increase vs baseline would reach more than 2% by 2030. The increase in wages is triggered by the enhanced energy efficiency and GDP growth rates, as well as the improvement of labour productivity (GDP/People employed). Labour productivity, in turn, has been encouraged by the demand-side measures and the additional capital investment and government expenditures increased the economy’s capability to hire new workers beyond its initial status. As a consequence of the growth in salaries, disposable income is also expanded. Disposable income would rise by 0.40%-1.35% after the UK Energy Plan is implemented, similarly to hourly wages.

·         850,000 new skilled jobs in green industry

 

·         6,200 avoided deaths a year by 2030

It is estimate that local PM2.5 levels are 21% local non-transport (stationary combustion) and 45% regional UK. This implies a 66% of local PM2.5 levels have some dependence on fossil fuel combustion, this has been assumed to be 50%, so 33% over all (https://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/assets/documents/reports/cat09/1204301513_AQD2010mapsrep_master_v0.pdf). Then of that 33% impact, a reduction of 78% will be seen due to the recommendations of this report as we move away from fossil fuel based electricity and heat generation.

These assumptions have been applied using a methodology based on work undertaken by C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group (https://drive.google.com/file/d/1wSORn0yOYS5kcZXql_nEH98EEvC1OscR/view), to estimate the overall health benefits of delivering the above 30 recommendations.

It is estimated that by 2030 this very significant reduction in fossil fuel use for energy could save 6,200 avoidable deaths per year.

·         565,000 less cases of asthma by 2030

4% of UK homes have serious damp concerns, and 17.5% of the UK population have been diagnosed with a form of asthma according to the World Health Survey https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3353191/table/T1/?report=objectonly. Damp is known to cause asthma, and so improving the quality of all UK homes, with a focus on damp, will result in higher likelihood of asthma. The mould – asthma risk ratio is around 1.4. Using this evidence, and a methodology developed and used by C40 (https://www.c40.org/benefits), estimates can be made of the fewer cases of asthma expected by 2030 by removing the majority of cases of damp (assumed 90% success rate). As such, it is estimated that by 2030 around 560,000 cases of asthma will have been avoided through reducing the amount of damp housing in the UK.

·         1,500 lives saved per year due to cold.

In the 2017 to 2018 winter period, there were an estimated 50,100 excess winter deaths in England and Wales. The number of excess winter deaths in 2017 to 2018 was the highest recorded since winter 1975 to 1976. This is for a whole range of reasons, but poorly insulated and cold homes is a contributing factor. C40 have developed a methodology for estimating the impact of increasing the average temperature of the coldest homes on cold deaths. This methodology was used to estimate the impact of increasing internal temperatures by an average of 2 degrees centigrade, more than feasible based on a whole home retrofit as proposed in this document. It is estimated that of the roughly 50,000 extra deaths due to cold each year, around 1,500 can be avoided through delivering a UK wide home retrofit program as proposed in this document.

·         £400 million per year for the NHS is based on the assumption of around £6k per hospital entry, with around £250m saved due to fewer AQ driven respiratory disease hospital entries, and £150m saves due to fewer cardiac diseases. This is based on improved morbidity numbers from air quality model https://c40-production-images.s3.amazonaws.com/other_uploads/images/1605_C40_UCAIF_report_V3.original.pdf?1518203136

·         Fuel poverty currently affects 2.5 million households https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/812442/Fuel_Poverty_June_2019.pdf