On
Thursday last week the Labour Party released its most detailed energy policy
strategy to date (https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ThirtyBy2030report.pdf) under the leadership of
Jeremy Corbyn, who has shown increasing interest in the climate change threat. For example, in
responding to the Prime Minister in the Queen’s Speech debate on 14 October he
stressed “what we need is a green new deal. We need a green
industrial revolution, and we have to face up to the reality of the climate emergency.
If we do not, the damage to the next generation and the one after it will be
even worse.” (https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2019-10-14/debates/C02C488A-E8CB-459F-A491-78BA5A98A9CB/DebateOnTheAddress)
The
new energy document follows a shorter
document, issued a year earlier, drafted
by the same authorship team, titled ‘Achieving
60% renewable and low carbon energy in
the UK by 2030’ (https://www.labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Achieving-6025-by-2030-final-version.pdf)
Described as an “expert
briefing note for Labour on wind, solar and energy efficiency”, it was covered
by an authorship rider that insisted that it was “conducted
independently from the Labour Party and does not represent Labour Party policy,”
and added “ This project is the
product of a working group of industry professionals and experts, with inputs
from right across the energy sector, over a six-month period.. The authors have
contributed in a purely personal capacity.
The summary of this
document stated;
“In the 2017 General
Election, the Labour Party committed to ensuring that 60% of the UK’s energy
demand in electricity and heating came from zero carbon or renewable sources by
2030. The commitment prompted a group of industry specialists and professionals
to begin a research project addressing the following questions: Can it be done?
How? And with what consequences for our climate and economy? This briefing sets out some of the high-level
findings of that research, covering the technologies needed to achieve that
target, and the top line implications for jobs and energy poverty. It focuses
on four key areas: energy efficiency, offshore wind, onshore wind and solar
power. The full findings, which set out decarbonisation pathways across the
energy system, will be published in a full report later in the year.
This work is the first
stage of the project, and analyses ‘the what’: the scale and scope of
technologies required for Labour to meet the 60% target. The second stage will
analyse ‘the how’: the skills, investment and government action needed to
ensure the energy transition is delivered at best value, while maximising
economic opportunities across the UK – protecting existing and creating new
energy workers.
The purpose of this
research is to help inform Labour Party policy, and contribute to the wider
debate on the UK’s future energy mix”
In
the September 2018 document Foreword, Rebecca Long-Bailey, Labour’s Shadow
Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy wrote:
“Tackling climate change
will be one of Labour’s most important tasks in government. The evidence is
unequivocal, the timeframes are urgent, and the opportunities are unmissable.
That is why we are backing
a target of net zero emissions before 2050, and are committed to ensuring that
60 per cent of the UK’s energy comes from renewable and low carbon sources
within twelve years of coming to power.
As set out in Labour’s Green
Transformation pamphlet, we will take on environmental challenges according
to three principles:
1. Our ambition is based
on science
2. Our interventions are
transformational, bringing about the structural change needed to address
drivers of environmental degradation
3. Our interventions will
advance our Labour values – justice, equality, solidarity, and democracy – both
at home and abroad
This means addressing
climate change in a way that ensures that the huge benefits of transitioning to
a sustainable economy – and the benefits are huge – are both realized and
widely shared. We know we can only do this by working closely with trade unions
representing energy workers, and that’s what we are already doing.
I warmly welcome this
independent research undertaken for the Labour Party, and pay tribute to the
working group of industry professionals and experts behind it.
Labour’s mission is about
more than carbon. It is about creating hundreds of thousands of new jobs
reviving whole areas of the UK, and ending fuel poverty, boosting the
fundamental quality of life for millions of people. Forget climate pessimism.
We are excited, inspired, and itching to get started.
With that in mind, I look
forward to welcoming the full research later in the year.”
The new energy policy
strategy - Thirty recommendations by 2030
- is the outcome of the expansion of this earlier document, and runs to 187
pages. The full contents list is reproduced below.* Rebecca Long-Bailey, says
of the necessity for the ideas in the report:
“we
have a moral duty to switch to clean energy. We are the first generation with
the data and science to properly understand the full implications of the damage
that two centuries of industrialisation has done to the fragile eco-system that
makes all life possible on Earth. And we are probably the last generation that
is able to prevent run-away climate change from threatening the very existence
of human civilisation. If we don’t cut pollution, nothing else that a Labour
government delivers will survive as a legacy.”
The
main difference , aside from length, from the earlier document is the inclusion
of advocacy support for a nuclear energy component to the electricity supply mix, of which more below.
The
new report lists its authors, but not their professional experience or affiliations.
Below is a summary I have researched and compiled, and collectively they do appear
very well qualified to write this report, most having
high level academic qualifications, and some long experience as energy expert practitioners.
Primary
Author:
Tom Bailey: low carbon energy consultant (at Arup)
Contributing Authors:
Alexander
Schamroth-Green: no independent
publications or institutional details
Archie Luxton: renewable energy specialist
engineer ( at Arup)
Christina Lumsden: experienced
energy and climate change consultant (at Arup). Researcher for report ‘Deadline
2020: how cities will get the job done (C40 Cities/Arup)
Donal Brown: sustainable energy specialist with
extensive experience in the low carbon housing sector,
Centre on Innovation and Energy Demand, Science
Policy Research Unit (SPRU), University of Sussex
Ewan Frost-Pennington: Energy
and Climate Change Consultant (at Arup) now based in San Francisco
Jaspreet Singh: MPhil in Engineering for Sustainable
Development on ‘Decentralised Solar Power in
Communities and businesses in South Asia’ at University of Cambridge; (now
mechanical and electrical engineer at Arup)
Sara Dethier: studied
Physics at Imperial College London with a year abroad at the University of
Valencia, where she completed her thesis on active machine learning for the
Earth Explorer Fluorescence Explorer mission, which seeks to improve our
understanding of the global carbon and water cycle
William Bailey: William Bailey Ltd, part of the Renewable Energy Hub, based in
Belper in the Midlands. WBL are suppliers of heating, plumbing, ventilation and
air conditioning services.
Economics Analysis:
John Barrett: Professor in Energy and Climate Policy
in the Sustainability Research Institute at the University of Leeds. His
research interests include energy demand, resource productivity, energy and
economy modelling, carbon accounting and exploring the transition to a low
carbon future. John was the Director of the Centre for Industrial Energy,
Materials and Products (CIE-MAP) and a Co-Director of the UK Energy Research
Centre. He was also a lead author for the International Panel on Climate
Change, Working Group III.
Paul Brockway: Dr Brockway is a University Academic Fellow in the School of Earth and Environment at the University of Leeds focussed on studying macroeconomic energy-economy interactions, through
primarily the lens of exergy analysis
Jaime Nieto Vega:
research fellow at the School of Earth
and Environment at the University of Leeds and a member of the GEEDS-UVa (Research Group on Energy, Economy and System Dynamics -
University of Valladolid)
Lead author Tom Bailey was one of 32 contributing
authors to a significant study, “Delivering London’s Energy Future: the Mayor’s
Climate Change Mitigation and Energy Strategy,” published in October 2011 (www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/gla_migrate_files_destination/Energy-future-oct11.pdf)
In an interview published a few
years later, (“I’d like that job: Tom Bailey, low carbon energy consultant,
Arup”, 12 March 2013; https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2013/03/id-like-that-job-tom-bailey-low-carbon-energy-consultant-arup/) he said “I was surprised how the main hurdles when trying to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions are not actually technical. A surprising amount of my
job is doing financial and business modelling, trying to demonstrate to others
that green solutions stack up commercially. Normally the technical bits are
easy. It’s getting the people and the money in line that can be more
challenging..”
In a later article, (“Tom Bailey on Keeping the Lights On,” (www.getsolutions.co.uk/tom-bailey-keeping-lights/), published on 20 October
2014), Bailey wrote:
“For the past two years the UK has
experienced unusually warm winters, which has led to less energy usage…Whilst
the energy industry has been able to secure and use the renewable energy
efficiently, we cannot survive on the hope of having another mild winter. Not
when you consider that this winter is meant to be the coldest in a century,
with arctic freeze gripping the UK…For UK energy markets to curb their reliance
on imported energy, there has to be efficient energy management processes in
place. ..We can also create a ‘green fund’ to help people reduce their energy
consumption, and exploit the opportunities from solar, CHP and a variety of
different technologies, leading to a reduction in energy consumption and
associated costs.”
The one
area the new report authors would appear to have no professional expert knowledge
is nuclear power. The intriguing question
is why is the short chapter on nuclear has
found its way into this report, in which it sits very uncomfortably And why does it uniquely contain
some gross errors, including
several sloppy spelling mistakes (its spells Hinkley Point C
also wrongly as Hinckley,
sometimes in the same sentence!) and one wrong placement of a nuclear reactor site, Bradwell, from Essex to Kent? (One
critic suggested this might have been an early unexpected consequence of sea level
rise from climate change!)
Minimally,
the report lacks consistent editing. But by including support for nuclear power,
which is not low carbon, is highly centralized
and still surrounded by secrecy- as it
has for decades - means it fails Labour’s decarbonisation,
decentralisation and democratisation commitments.
Labour’s forthcoming new election manifesto will be interesting on energy
policy.
ANNEX
4.13 Nuclear power
For the purposes of this analysis, we have considered nuclear power as a contributing towards renewable and low - carbon energy supply.
For the purposes of this analysis, we have considered nuclear power as a contributing towards renewable and low - carbon energy supply.
4.13.1 Nuclear
power and GHG emissions
The production of
electricity by harnessing nuclear fission was pioneered by the UK and a small
number of other nations almost 70 years ago. It is now one of the main
electricity generation technologies deployed globally. The
fission of uranium atoms produces large
volumes of heat without any direct
reliance on combustion of carbon-based fuels,
and so creates low operational GHG
emissions. However, as with all large scale
civils work and plant manufacture and
installation, there are significant imbedded GHG
emissions associated with them. This is
true for most energy generation
technologies. It is also true for nuclear,
in the case of the construction of
the plant, uranium mining, milling, fuel
processing, fuel enrichment,
refuelling(plants are offline for months at a time), backup power, waste storage, and decommissioning have significant imbedded GHG emissions associated with them. For this reason, nuclear power is considered a low -carbon energy source, but not a zero -carbon energy source.
refuelling(plants are offline for months at a time), backup power, waste storage, and decommissioning have significant imbedded GHG emissions associated with them. For this reason, nuclear power is considered a low -carbon energy source, but not a zero -carbon energy source.
4.13.2 Current UK
nuclear capacity
The UK
has 15 reactors with a total capacity
of 8.9GW generating about 21% of
total electrical output.
However almost half of this capacity is planned to be retired by 2025. The capacity factor of a typical nuclear power station is far greater than all other renewable and low-carbon sources, because a station provides output 24/7 when online–a core reason behind arguments that nuclear power should be a key
part of any low-carbon energy mix. As outlined in Table17,five of the current nuclear power sites in the https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/fifth-carbon-budget-dataset/UK, representing 10 reactors, are expected to reach the end of their operational life before 2030, and most of these by 2025. EDF has a programme of work aiming to extend the life of these plants, but details for this are not currently publicly available.
Therefore, this work has assumed that the plants will come offline at the planned time, meaning around 5GW of the current fleet will potentially be offline by 2030, and all but Sizewell B from 2031.
However almost half of this capacity is planned to be retired by 2025. The capacity factor of a typical nuclear power station is far greater than all other renewable and low-carbon sources, because a station provides output 24/7 when online–a core reason behind arguments that nuclear power should be a key
part of any low-carbon energy mix. As outlined in Table17,five of the current nuclear power sites in the https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/fifth-carbon-budget-dataset/UK, representing 10 reactors, are expected to reach the end of their operational life before 2030, and most of these by 2025. EDF has a programme of work aiming to extend the life of these plants, but details for this are not currently publicly available.
Therefore, this work has assumed that the plants will come offline at the planned time, meaning around 5GW of the current fleet will potentially be offline by 2030, and all but Sizewell B from 2031.
Table 17 . Current
UK nuclear fleet (as of 2018). NOT INCLUDED IN THIS EMAIL
4.13.3 Options for maintaining capacity to 2030
4.13.3 Options for maintaining capacity to 2030
There
are certainly sufficient proposed nuclear
power sites within the UK to replace
decommissioned plants between now and 2030.
The UK government currently aims to deliver 12GW of new nuclear capacity by 2030, and has proposed a further 2.3GW, from a range of new sites
(Hinkley C1/C2, Sizewell C1/C2, Wylfa Newydd ½, Oldbury B1/B2, Moreside ½/3 etc). Of these only Hinckley C is under construction. The nuclear power capacity contributing to supply in 2030 is therefore 8.9GW, resulting in around 63TWh of output in 2030, contributing 15% of the renewable and low-carbon electricity needed. Given the large number of nuclear plants being decommissioned over the coming 7 years, it may be possible that in the
mid 2020s the nuclear capacity drops below that of today, but this strategy assumes that this number then increases back to 8.9GW by 2030.
However, at the time of writing there remains uncertainty around much of the planned and proposed new capacity in the UK. For instance, Toshiba has recently pulled out of the planned Mooreside plant in Cumbria for financial reasons. That plant was intended to account for 3.4GW of nuclear power, and was originally
planned for 2024. Hitachi have also recently pulled out of the planned Wylfa nuclear plant in Angelsey, also for financial reasons. The assumption for this strategy, as per Labour Party policy, is to maintain nuclear generation capacity in the UK at its current level out to 2030, and so we assume these new reactors will be developed only to the extent required to replace the 8GW of existing plant capacity that is expected to come offline.
This could still certainly be achieved, however. Hinkley Point C is under construction and due for completion in 2025. Nearing the completion date there would be much more certainty around the cost of construction, http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/C-EDF-Energy-extends-lives-of-UK-AGR-plants-1602164.html http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-t-z/united-kingdom.aspx http://www.toshiba.co.jp/about/ir/en/news/20181108_4.pdf
and the design for the EDF EPR would now be familiar to UK regulators.
The UK government currently aims to deliver 12GW of new nuclear capacity by 2030, and has proposed a further 2.3GW, from a range of new sites
(Hinkley C1/C2, Sizewell C1/C2, Wylfa Newydd ½, Oldbury B1/B2, Moreside ½/3 etc). Of these only Hinckley C is under construction. The nuclear power capacity contributing to supply in 2030 is therefore 8.9GW, resulting in around 63TWh of output in 2030, contributing 15% of the renewable and low-carbon electricity needed. Given the large number of nuclear plants being decommissioned over the coming 7 years, it may be possible that in the
mid 2020s the nuclear capacity drops below that of today, but this strategy assumes that this number then increases back to 8.9GW by 2030.
However, at the time of writing there remains uncertainty around much of the planned and proposed new capacity in the UK. For instance, Toshiba has recently pulled out of the planned Mooreside plant in Cumbria for financial reasons. That plant was intended to account for 3.4GW of nuclear power, and was originally
planned for 2024. Hitachi have also recently pulled out of the planned Wylfa nuclear plant in Angelsey, also for financial reasons. The assumption for this strategy, as per Labour Party policy, is to maintain nuclear generation capacity in the UK at its current level out to 2030, and so we assume these new reactors will be developed only to the extent required to replace the 8GW of existing plant capacity that is expected to come offline.
This could still certainly be achieved, however. Hinkley Point C is under construction and due for completion in 2025. Nearing the completion date there would be much more certainty around the cost of construction, http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/C-EDF-Energy-extends-lives-of-UK-AGR-plants-1602164.html http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-t-z/united-kingdom.aspx http://www.toshiba.co.jp/about/ir/en/news/20181108_4.pdf
and the design for the EDF EPR would now be familiar to UK regulators.
This lengthy
process involves two stages:
•Stage 1–GDA (General Design Assessment), checking basic principles of operation of a new plant design
•Stage 2–Site specific safety case, requiring many thousands of hours of staff time, demonstrating that the plant is safe in the context of a specific site.
This process would be much quicker post Hinckley Point C, significantly speeding up the process. Costs would look lower, potentially around the 65 GBP/MWh mark. Also the government is currently considering different funding model proposed next time for the following rounds. This all points to an easier and quicker development and implementation of new plant sites. There are also multiple viable sites for doing so. The Sizewell C site could house very similar plant to Hinckley Point C, at 3.2GW, meaning total of 6.4GW, meaning only 3GW needs to be found. Again there are multiple sites where a third 3.2GW plant could be housed. Sizewell on the east coast could be anther option, or Bradwell in Kent. These are all in the south east, so from the point of view of supporting local industry, other sites in the north could be considered, such as Wylfa. This analysis serves to give confidence that with the right government support, nuclear capacity in 2030 could be returned to today’s output levels.
•Stage 1–GDA (General Design Assessment), checking basic principles of operation of a new plant design
•Stage 2–Site specific safety case, requiring many thousands of hours of staff time, demonstrating that the plant is safe in the context of a specific site.
This process would be much quicker post Hinckley Point C, significantly speeding up the process. Costs would look lower, potentially around the 65 GBP/MWh mark. Also the government is currently considering different funding model proposed next time for the following rounds. This all points to an easier and quicker development and implementation of new plant sites. There are also multiple viable sites for doing so. The Sizewell C site could house very similar plant to Hinckley Point C, at 3.2GW, meaning total of 6.4GW, meaning only 3GW needs to be found. Again there are multiple sites where a third 3.2GW plant could be housed. Sizewell on the east coast could be anther option, or Bradwell in Kent. These are all in the south east, so from the point of view of supporting local industry, other sites in the north could be considered, such as Wylfa. This analysis serves to give confidence that with the right government support, nuclear capacity in 2030 could be returned to today’s output levels.
4.13.4 The Impact
of not developing any further nuclear plants.
This document
takes a neutral position on the
technology, assuming capacity remains level.
Without substantial changes to the landscape, for instance through a change in
government approach to financing, the collapse of such schemes highlights the
risks of the UK maintaining current capacity out to 2030.
As of 2019, Hinckley Point C is the only new plant funded and confirmed as going ahead. If no further plant is commissioned, then by 2030 the UK would only have 4.4GW of operational nuclear capacity (1.2GW from the existing Sizewell B and 3.2GW from the new Hinckley C). This would mean a further 32TWh of power would need to be found from other renewable and low-carbon sources to plug the gap and meet 90% renewable and low-carbon electricity.
As of 2019, Hinckley Point C is the only new plant funded and confirmed as going ahead. If no further plant is commissioned, then by 2030 the UK would only have 4.4GW of operational nuclear capacity (1.2GW from the existing Sizewell B and 3.2GW from the new Hinckley C). This would mean a further 32TWh of power would need to be found from other renewable and low-carbon sources to plug the gap and meet 90% renewable and low-carbon electricity.
These levels are
well within the available resources around the UK, and it is still entirely
possible to meet the 90% target without any new
nuclear capacity. It will however be
more challenging for a number of reasons,
including the loss of large volumes of low-carbon baseload power that nuclear
provides and the
increasing the proportion of generation capacity that is intermittent. This will necessitate greater capacity for grid balancing, either through power storage, interconnection, demand-side management, or fossil fuel back up. It may for instance necessitate greater volumes of fossil fuel to be put back on stand-by, resulting in higher system balancing costs. However,the system will also benefit from cheaper generation technology such as wind and solar. These issues will be explored in more detail in Section 5.
increasing the proportion of generation capacity that is intermittent. This will necessitate greater capacity for grid balancing, either through power storage, interconnection, demand-side management, or fossil fuel back up. It may for instance necessitate greater volumes of fossil fuel to be put back on stand-by, resulting in higher system balancing costs. However,the system will also benefit from cheaper generation technology such as wind and solar. These issues will be explored in more detail in Section 5.
4.13.5
Technological developments in nuclear power.
A nuclear power
technology receiving a lot of attention currently is the small modular reactor
(SMR). There are significant potential benefits reported for this technology.
It is suitable for modular mass construction (reducing price and complexity and
improving reliability and standardisation of processes) and it can be produced largely by
UK supply chains (Rolls Royce, for
example). However there are no operational
commercial SMRs–just military ones- and so
it is not considered likely that the
technology would be cleared for civil operation before the 2030
target year. It has therefore not been considered any
further.
further.
This report
assumes nuclear output will be maintained at current levels based on Labour’s
policy that nuclear will continue to form part of the energy mix. This assumes
the existing plants that are planned for decommissioning before 2030 are
replaced with equivalent capacity, which this report finds could be
possible in the time frame.
possible in the time frame.
*EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
...................................................................................................................................
6
SNAPSHOT
.................................................................................................................................................
7
The study team and its objectives
.............................................................................................................
8
Four goals for putting the UK on the path to zero-carbon
energy ............................................................ 8
Three delivery
phases..............................................................................................................................
10
Summary of Recommendations ..............................................................................................................
12
Delivering the recommendations
............................................................................................................
16
Emissions targets and climate change
....................................................................................................
18
The economic, employment and health benefits
...................................................................................
19
Towards zero-carbon energy and a zero-carbon UK
...............................................................................
20
A vital and pioneering first step
..............................................................................................................
20
1 Introduction
........................................................................................................................................
22
An energy transition that will benefit everyone ........................................................................
23
Project aims and goal
................................................................................................................
23
Project team ..............................................................................................................................
24
Approach
...................................................................................................................................
25
Ten years to deliver UK wide renewable and low-carbon
energy ............................................. 28
2 GOAL 1: REDUCING ENERGY WASTE IN BUILDINGS AND INDUSTRY
.................................................. 30
Chapter Summary ......................................................................................................................
31
Background: energy use in buildings today
...............................................................................
33
The importance of demand reduction.......................................................................................
35
Home energy efficiency and energy-demand reduction
........................................................... 36
Reducing energy waste in the commercial and industrial
sectors ............................................ 43
New buildings
............................................................................................................................
49
Summary of Recommendations
................................................................................................
50
3 GOAL 2: RADICALLY DECARBONISE HEATING
.....................................................................................
51
Chapter Summary
......................................................................................................................
52
Background: the UK’s current heat supply
................................................................................
55
The importance of transitioning from dependence on natural
gas heating ............................. 56
Heating technology options: opportunities and challenges
...................................................... 57
Coordination of heat decarbonisation and energy demand
reduction ..................................... 63
Maximising renewable or low-carbon heat by 2030
................................................................. 63
Strategic solutions for decarbonising heat ................................................................................
71
Summary of Recommendations
................................................................................................
73
4 GOAL 3: BOOST RENEWABLE AND LOW-CARBON ELECTRICITY GENERATION
................................... 75
Chapter Summary
......................................................................................................................
76
Background: Renewable energy generation today
................................................................... 78
Approach for renewable and low-carbon electricity analysis
................................................... 78
Summary of renewable and low-carbon electricity mix in
2030 ............................................... 79
Fossil fuel power generation
.....................................................................................................
81
Onshore wind
............................................................................................................................
81
Offshore Wind
...........................................................................................................................
86
Solar photovoltaics
....................................................................................................................
94
Marine power
............................................................................................................................
99
Carbon capture and storage ....................................................................................................
104
Hydropower
.............................................................................................................................
108
Biomass power ........................................................................................................................
108
Nuclear power
.........................................................................................................................
109
Deep geothermal
.....................................................................................................................
112
Decentralised electricity and community electricity
generation ............................................ 112
Summary of Recommendations
..............................................................................................
113
5 GOAL 4: SYSTEM BALANCING
...........................................................................................................
114 Expert Briefing: Putting the UK on a path to zero carbon energy 3
Chapter Summary
....................................................................................................................
115
Background ..............................................................................................................................
117
The importance of a “whole energy system approach”
.......................................................... 121
Demonstrating that the lights and heaters will stay on in 2030
............................................. 122
Further solutions for balancing supply and demand
............................................................... 126
Ensuring long-term energy security and the Beast from the East
........................................... 129
Impact of storage on overall demand: losses
.......................................................................... 131
Summary of recommendations
...............................................................................................
132
6 ELECTRIFICAITON OF TRANSPORT
....................................................................................................
133
Chapter Summary
....................................................................................................................
134
Background
..............................................................................................................................
135
Electric vehicle targets .............................................................................................................
135
Transport and energy sectors are intimately linked
................................................................ 135
Energy impacts of future changes in UK ground transportation
............................................. 135
Anticipated electricity demand from electric vehicles in 2030
............................................... 139
Impact of including EV energy demand
...................................................................................
139
Summary of recommendations
...............................................................................................
141
7 CLIMATE CHANGE TARGETS
.............................................................................................................
142
Chapter Summary
....................................................................................................................
143
Energy emissions in the UK......................................................................................................
144
Estimating the energy-related GHG impact of delivering the thirty
recommendations ......... 144
Comparing to climate science and targets
..............................................................................
146
8 IMPACTS ON THE ECONOMY, EMPLOYMENT AND HEALTH
............................................................. 150
Chapter Summary
....................................................................................................................
151
Introduction
.............................................................................................................................
153
Avoiding the costs of doing nothing on climate change ..........................................................
154
Investment
...............................................................................................................................
155
Macro-economic impacts ........................................................................................................
155
Fuel poverty
.............................................................................................................................
158
Employment impacts ...............................................................................................................
158
Health impacts
.........................................................................................................................
160
9 FOUNDATIONS FOR A ZERO CARBON 2050
.....................................................................................
163
The right level of ambition for 2030
........................................................................................
164
Progressing to net-zero carbon energy
...................................................................................
164
Important issues
......................................................................................................................
165
Beyond energy to a zero-carbon UK
........................................................................................
168
10 CONCLUSIONS AND NEXT
STEPS.......................................................................................................
170
Conclusions
..............................................................................................................................
171
Next steps
................................................................................................................................
174
Appendices
................................................................................................................................................
175
Appendix A – Role of District Heating ........................................................................................................
176
Appendix B – Role of Biomass In Delivering
..............................................................................................
178
Appendix C – Role of Hydrogen
.................................................................................................................
180
Appendix D –Modelling Assumptions
........................................................................................................
182
Non-Domestic Building Energy Demand Reduction Assumptions
........................................................ 182
Current sector energy demand assumptions
........................................................................................
185
Energy Generation Modelling Assumptions
..........................................................................................
186
Carbon
Modelling Assumption
..............................................................................................................
186
Labour
welcomes report putting UK onto the path to net zero energy emissions in the
2030s
Today
(Thursday), Labour welcomes an expert fast-track plan to clean up the UK’s
energy system.
At Labour Party Conference 2019, motions were
adopted calling on the Party to “work towards a path to net zero carbon
emissions by 2030” and “work towards a path of net zero carbon emissions within
keeping of the IPCC advice including to keep global average temperature rises
below 1.5C”.
In line with this, Labour tasked a group of
independent energy industry experts with identifying the most radical feasible
pathway to decarbonise the energy system by 2030.
Electricity and heating across the UK makes up
56% of the UK’s carbon emissions. Their report, 30 by 2030, identifies
four goals to transform the UK’s energy supply and use: reducing energy waste
in buildings and industry; decarbonising heat; boosting renewable and low
carbon electricity generation and balancing the UK’s supply and demand.
Thirty recommendations to meet these goals
include upgrading every home in the UK with energy saving measures like
insulation and double glazing, focusing first on damp homes and areas with fuel
poverty; installing 8 million heat pumps; installing 7,000 off-shore wind
turbines, 2,000 more on-shore wind turbines and solar panels covering an area
22,000 football pitches, tripling the UK’s current capacity.
By 2030 the recommended investment in the
energy sector would lead to a net benefit of £800 billion to the economy – the
equivalent to the whole economy of Holland or Turkey – and create 850,000
new skilled jobs in green industry.
Upgrading housing stock has the potential to
end to the fuel poverty currently affecting 2.5 million households. By 2030
these measures could mean 565,000 less cases of asthma due to reduced damp.
Replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy
could result in 6,200 avoided respiratory related deaths a year by 2030 due to
improved air quality. Overall, benefits to public health have the potential to
save the NHS £400 million per year.
Commenting on the report, Rebecca Long Bailey
MP, Labour’s Shadow Business and Energy Secretary, said:
“This report makes a major contribution to
Labour’s plans to kickstart a Green Industrial Revolution.
“The Labour Party has among the most ambitious
climate targets in the world and is the only party turning their targets into
detailed, credible plans to tackle the climate and environmental crisis.
“Inaction on climate by Conservative and
Lib-Dem Coalition Governments has led to a lost decade in the race to cut
emissions from our energy system. The recommendations in this report could put
the UK on track for a zero-carbon energy system during the 2030’s – but only if
rapid progress is made early on. The next five years are therefore crucial.
“We are working with trade unions to ensure
that the changes to our energy system will be planned democratically, with the
interests of workers and local communities at the heart of the transition.”
Ends
Notes to Editors
·
Jeremy Corbyn has
previously committed that “the next Labour Government will guarantee that all
energy workers are offered retraining, a new job on equivalent terms and
conditions, covered by collective agreements and fully supported in their
housing and income needs through transition.” https://labour.org.uk/press/jeremy-corbyn-speech-alternative-models-ownership-conference/
·
At Labour Party
Conference 2019, motions were adopted calling on the Party to:
·
“In collaboration with
the trade unions and the scientific community, work towards a path to net zero
carbon emissions by 2030, guaranteeing an increase in good unionised jobs in
the UK, and the cost of which would be borne by the wealthiest not the
majority; and implementing this target into law if it achieves a
just-transition for workers.”
·
‘Have a comprehensive
plan that leads the world’ and “work towards a path of net zero carbon
emissions within keeping of the IPCC advice including to keep global average
temperature rises below 1.5C” and “oversee a just transition, increasing the
number of well-paid, unionised green jobs in the UK through public ownership of
energy, creating an integrated, democratic system large-scale investment in
renewables”.http://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/CAC-3-FINAL..pdf
·
Labour has committed
to an industrial strategy ensures the UK reduces its emissions in a way that
protects and creates quality unionised jobs with good pay and conditions,
retrains workers to access new jobs, allows citizens and workers to engage in
decision-making processes, and fairly distributes the costs. https://labour.org.uk/green-industrial-revolution-consultation/
·
Inaction on climate by
Conservative and Lib-Dem Coalition Governments has led to a lost decade in the
race to cut emissions from our energy system.
·
The Government has
effectively banned the cheapest form of renewables – new onshore wind – through
restrictive planning measures and removal of subsidies, and new deployment has
fallen 94%.https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/solar-wind-energy-renewable-energy-resources-drop-conservative-party-707953
·
The Solar Trade
Association report that new deployment of solar has fallen 90% since 2016.https://www.solar-trade.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/STA-Response-Outlook-for-future-investment-in-energy-infrastructure-in-the-UK-03.04.2019.pdf
·
The Government has
refused to support the development of the Swansea Tidal Lagoon, holding back
the development of larger tidal lagoons across the UK, effectively removed
support for tidal stream energy. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jun/25/government-rejects-plan-for-tidal-lagoon-in-swansea
·
The Government’s
Sector Deal for offshore wind has been slammed by Greenpeace as “woefully
inadequate”.https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/07/government-throws-its-weight-behind-offshore-wind-power-expansion
·
Meanwhile, the
Government has overridden local democracy to push fracking on the UK, in the
face of overwhelming local opposition to air pollution, earthquakes and risks
to local water quality.https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/28/fracking-turning-country-tories-zac-goldsmith-conservative-drilling
·
The analysis has
relied to the use of a MARCO-UK model to estimate the behaviour of the UK
economy from 2020-2030, under the conditions created through the implementation
of the thirty recommendations outlined in this report.
·
The main technical
project team, provided to the Leeds economics team, the following inputs for
the model: the overall investment volume and timing by technology /
intervention (summarised in Section 8.4 above; the estimated government
capital investment required by technology / intervention – this is taken to be
around £150bn of capital investment over the ten years from 2020-2030; energy
savings in electricity and gas – as outlined in the technical chapters above.
·
Between 2020 and 2030
the impacts of delivering the recommendations, compared to no such action, are
highly positive, and represents a very substantial uplift to the GDP of the UK
over that period. This is due to large volumes of capital investment, both
government and private, and improved energy efficiency which saves costs to the
economy as a whole. Economic growth will be significantly higher as a result,
with the annual growth rate being up to 11.4% higher across the decade than the
reference case. This will mean the UK economy will perform significantly better,
and cumulatively over the period between 2020-2030, create an extra £800
billion. This is around about the annual output of the whole of Turkey or
Holland, or nearly 30% of the entire UK economy today.
·
Given government tax
across GDP is historically in the UK around 37%, this has been assumed to
remain level to 2030, resulting in up to £290bn greater government income
cumulatively by 2030. This would mean that for every £1 the UK government
spends, up to £2 would be received as a direct result in tax, effectively
paying back the government’s investment twice over. This would have a very
substantial net positive impact on the UK government balance sheet.
·
A significant increase
in both salaries and disposable income would come out of delivering the recommendations.
The hourly wages increase vs baseline would reach more than 2% by 2030. The
increase in wages is triggered by the enhanced energy efficiency and GDP growth
rates, as well as the improvement of labour productivity (GDP/People employed).
Labour productivity, in turn, has been encouraged by the demand-side measures
and the additional capital investment and government expenditures increased the
economy’s capability to hire new workers beyond its initial status. As a
consequence of the growth in salaries, disposable income is also expanded.
Disposable income would rise by 0.40%-1.35% after the UK Energy Plan is
implemented, similarly to hourly wages.
·
850,000 new skilled
jobs in green industry
·
6,200 avoided deaths a
year by 2030
It is estimate that local PM2.5 levels are 21% local
non-transport (stationary combustion) and 45% regional UK. This implies a 66%
of local PM2.5 levels have some dependence on fossil fuel combustion, this has
been assumed to be 50%, so 33% over all (https://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/assets/documents/reports/cat09/1204301513_AQD2010mapsrep_master_v0.pdf). Then of that 33% impact, a reduction of 78% will be seen due
to the recommendations of this report as we move away from fossil fuel based
electricity and heat generation.
These assumptions have been applied using a methodology based on
work undertaken by C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group (https://drive.google.com/file/d/1wSORn0yOYS5kcZXql_nEH98EEvC1OscR/view), to estimate the overall health benefits of delivering the
above 30 recommendations.
It is estimated that by 2030 this very significant reduction in
fossil fuel use for energy could save 6,200 avoidable deaths per year.
·
565,000 less cases of
asthma by 2030
4% of UK homes have serious damp concerns, and 17.5% of the UK
population have been diagnosed with a form of asthma according to the World
Health Survey https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3353191/table/T1/?report=objectonly. Damp is known to cause asthma, and so improving the quality of
all UK homes, with a focus on damp, will result in higher likelihood of asthma.
The mould – asthma risk ratio is around 1.4. Using this evidence, and a
methodology developed and used by C40 (https://www.c40.org/benefits), estimates can be made of the fewer cases of asthma expected
by 2030 by removing the majority of cases of damp (assumed 90% success rate).
As such, it is estimated that by 2030 around 560,000 cases of asthma will have
been avoided through reducing the amount of damp housing in the UK.
·
1,500 lives saved per
year due to cold.
In the 2017 to 2018 winter period, there were an estimated
50,100 excess winter deaths in England and Wales. The number of excess winter
deaths in 2017 to 2018 was the highest recorded since winter 1975 to 1976. This
is for a whole range of reasons, but poorly insulated and cold homes is a
contributing factor. C40 have developed a methodology for estimating the impact
of increasing the average temperature of the coldest homes on cold deaths. This
methodology was used to estimate the impact of increasing internal temperatures
by an average of 2 degrees centigrade, more than feasible based on a whole home
retrofit as proposed in this document. It is estimated that of the roughly
50,000 extra deaths due to cold each year, around 1,500 can be avoided through
delivering a UK wide home retrofit program as proposed in this document.
·
£400 million per year
for the NHS is based on the assumption of around £6k per hospital entry, with
around £250m saved due to fewer AQ driven respiratory disease hospital entries,
and £150m saves due to fewer cardiac diseases. This is based on improved morbidity
numbers from air quality model https://c40-production-images.s3.amazonaws.com/other_uploads/images/1605_C40_UCAIF_report_V3.original.pdf?1518203136
·
Fuel poverty currently
affects 2.5 million households https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/812442/Fuel_Poverty_June_2019.pdf
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